by garwyli91 » Thu Jul 26, 2012 2:24 am
Let's get this straight.
Our debt, despite being extremely prohibitive, is not, and for the foreseeable future, will not, result in bankruptcy/liquidation etc.
We have £100m profit margins, but that is eaten into by £50m of interest repayments, and actual loan repayments on top of that take the figure up to about £75m (iirc).
So we are still in a profit of £25m or so at the end of each financial year. This is both amazing, and awful at the same time. Amazing, because despite being the most indebted football club in history, we still manage to post a profit. It's awful, because our enormous "profit" of £100m is whittled down to just £25m because of the parasitic Glazer family.
But let's get to the IPO. That is the question at hand, afterall.
An IPO is, in theory, a great way to raise funds for Manchester United. However, the way the Glazer's want to structure it, is that they basically retain 100% control of the club, despite there being many shareholders.
The dual-class share offer is not uncommon in America (apparently Google runs off of a similar structure), but the fact that the Glazer's have offered NO dividends (yearly pay out to all shareholders), means that there isn't any incentive for investors to sink money in to it.
Where this leaves the Glazers now? The last 2 options you list, are incredibly unlikely. It would take a lot more debt than we currently have, to force us to go down either of those routes.
The first option, however, is looking more and more likely by the day.
Sure, right now, under his £2bn ($3bn~) or so valuation of the club, it wont sell. BUT, if he put the club on the stock market with a 1share=1vote system, at a reasonable valuation of around £1.3bn ($2.1bn) , this is around the valuation Forbes has assigned to the club , then the shares would be snapped up almost instantaneously.
It's said he needs $1bn (£650m) to break even? So if he sells up for around £1.3bn he, and his family, walk away with a profit of £650m. After 7 years of highly contentious (and lets be frank, sh!te) ownership of a business which has such a fluctuating value, £650m is a stunning amount of profit to walk away with.
As you said, it would be highly unlikely for an individual to pay this much, so it would go to the stock market, or as previously rumoured, a group such as the "red knights" who would bid with a collection of money from a small group of actual fans.
Glazer selling is a win-win situation for everybody. Glazer walks away with £650m in his back pocket, the club would finally eradicate it's debt, and the manager would be able to invest the money the club makes, back into the 1st team squad.
I can but live in hope that the Glazer's finally decide to move on, and the mighty Manchester United can return to the top of world football, with financial stability, exactly where it should be right now!