by Garton » Sat Feb 08, 2014 3:07 am
Washington is, and has been for sometime, an over inflated market. I think if it were me I'd hold off for now and wait to see if the correction spreading across the nation will reach the capital as well. Who would say to buy now? Mortgage Brokers, Bankers, other Real Estate Agents, and anyone else who derives their income form the real estate market. What else would you expect them to say? Banks happily loaned whatever amount borrowers wanted as long as the banks could then sell the loan, pushing the risk onto Fannie Mae(ultimately taxpayers) or onto buyers of mortgage backed securities. Now that it has become clear that a trillion dollars in mortgage loans will not be repaid, Fannie Mae is under pressure not to buy risky loans and investors do not want mortgage backed securities. This means that the money available for mortgages is falling, and house prices will keep falling, probably for 5 years or more. A return to traditional lending standards will mean a return to traditional prices, which are far below current prices. While normally a house/property would appreciate say 5 - 6% a year, currently they are doing just the opposite, housing values are remaining stagnant or in many cases the values are actually depreciating 5% to an unbelievable 40% in some markets. House prices do not even have to fall to cause big losses. The cost of selling a house is 6%. On a $300,000 house, that's $18,000 lost even if prices just stay flat. So a 4% decline in housing prices bankrupts all those with 10% equity or less. Another thing to keep in mind is that Baby boomers retiring. There are 77 million Americans born between1946-1964. One-third has zero retirement savings. The oldest are 61. The only cash they have is equity in a house, so they will most likely be a glut of baby boomer houses hitting the market in the next few years. Add to that the HUGE glut of empty housing(at least in my market). Builders are being forced to drop prices even faster than owners. They overbuilt and have huge excess inventory that they cannot sell at current prices. Well that?s my two cents worth. I?ve sold houses to people that were convinced they could afford that ?dream home? only too have them calling me in a panic that they cannot keep up on rising interest rates on their adjustable rate loan. Some have had to sell at lower prices than they bought forcing the mortgage company to take the hit on the loss. If your mortgage company refuses to take the hit or the hit is to large, guess what your stuck. If it were me I would wait another few years keeping a close eye on your market.